Rangers-Astros ALCS Game 6 preview: Pitching matchup, odds, X-factor, analysis

The Athletic has live coverage of Astros vs Rangers in Game 7 of the ALCS. 

To the neutral observer, this series has been a thrill.

These two teams — the defending World Series champion and the never-been champion — ended the regular season in a dead heat: 90 wins, 72 losses. They’re intrastate rivals. Their home stadiums sit 230 miles apart. They have beef the size of Texas. And now they’re trading blows back and forth, tempers flaring, taters flying, in a series to decide the AL pennant.

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What more could we baseball watchers want?

The wild card drew first blood. The Texas Rangers’ Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi bested Houston Astros starters Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez in Houston, and the wildly unlikely back-end trio of Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc sealed the steal of games 1 and 2.

Then the defending champs cracked back, taking three in Arlington. Their bats came to life, and their captain, Jose Altuve, provided the heroics.

We’ve had comebacks and collapses. We’ve had barking and benches clearing. We’ve had brilliant defensive play. We’ve had the nail-biting tension of bullpens trying to secure important outs. We’ve had it all. And now the series heads back to Houston, where the home team inexplicably struggles to win ballgames, and where it’ll start in Game 6 its All-Star starter who’s inexplicably been crushed lately.

Yes, this all has been a thrill.

Unless you’re an Astros or Rangers fan. For those lucky ones, the feeling’s something more like face-melting anxiety, like accidentally skiing a black diamond your first time on the slopes, like watching a first-person video of someone free-climbing a skyscraper. (Not recommended! Seriously!)

Must be awful. I can only imagine. Enjoy Game 6!

AL Championship Series Game 6: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

Series: The Astros lead, 3-2

Start time: 8:03 p.m. ET on FS1

Pitching matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Framber Valdez

Game 6 pitching matchup

Rangers: RHP Nathan Eovaldi
2023 stats: 12-5, 3.63 ERA, 144 innings, 132 strikeouts, 1.14 WHIP

Quick, update the chart from Eovaldi’s last start!

Eovaldi this October

Solo shots from Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman aside, Eovaldi was stupendous once again for the Rangers in Game 2. They’ll need another effort like that one in Game 6 to send the series to a winner-take-all Game 7. Eovaldi now has a 2.87 career postseason ERA and a 2.29 ERA this October.

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In Game 2, Eovaldi attacked the Astros with mostly splitters (32 percent), cutters (27 percent) and four-seamers (25 percent). His velocity has held steady, with his average fastball humming in the 95 mph range. The splitter has been the out pitch, generating a lot of chase and getting 20 swings-and-misses across Eovaldi’s three postseason starts. It’ll be interesting to see how he approaches the man of the hour in Houston, Altuve, who as we wrote last time has more homers off Eovaldi (five) than any other MLB hitter.

Astros: LHP Framber Valdez
2023 stats: 12-11, 3.45 ERA, 198 innings, 200 strikeouts, 1.13 WHIP

The good news about Valdez’s Game 2 start is 75 percent of his outs were strikeouts.

The bad news is he only got eight outs.

After an up-and-down second half, which included a no-hitter but also five starts with five-plus earned runs, Valdez has gotten blasted in both postseason starts. He went 4 1/3 innings against the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS, allowing five runs on seven hits and three walks. And he was yanked after 2 2/3 innings in ALCS Game 2 after giving up five runs (four earned) on seven hits and a walk.

Valdez last postseason: 1.44 ERA in 25 innings
Valdez this postseason: 11.57 ERA in 7 innings

Yet the Rangers won’t feel comfortable stepping in against him in an elimination game. Valdez has been one of the best and most consistent AL starters in recent years. His sinker is heavy. His curveball is filthy. His cutter eats up lefties. So, we’ll see whether it all shows up in Game 6.

GO DEEPER

Rangers win AL pennant, validate status as team of destiny

Game 6 X-factor

Marcus Semien

For the Rangers to stave off elimination, they need their leadoff man back on his game. Coming off a season in which Semien led the AL in hits and runs, he’s batting .159 through 10 games this postseason. He’s currently mired in a 1-for-15 slump. That skid extends back to the third inning of Game 2 or, more precisely, to the moment Valdez was pulled. Semien had two infield singles off Valdez in that game, and it was his turn to hit next when Astros manager Dusty Baker called for right-hander Rafael Montero from the Astros bullpen. (Semien struck out.)

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Maybe facing Valdez again will help Semien find his swing. Semien is 11-for-33 (.333) lifetime against Valdez with a double, two homers and three walks.

Notable quotable

Justin Verlander on watching Altuve’s go-ahead Game 5 blast from the dugout:

“(Yainer) Díaz gets the hit, and it’s like, all right, now we’ve got the tying run on,” Verlander said. “(Jon) Singleton works a big walk, it’s like, oh, man, here we go. We’ve turned the lineup over. We’ve got nobody out. And we’ve got our guy up. You don’t use the word ‘expect,’ but you anticipate something great happening. And more often than not, he just seems to deliver.

“Just an incredible feel for the moment. Incredible baseball player.”

(Photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

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